My Election Map for November 2, 2024

Some map changes and comments about early data and possible surprises.

I’ll be hosting the Furrowcious Election Day Special live on November 5th. This is a non-partisan group hosted on Facebook that will report on election returns and post results, often ahead of television broadcasts. Everyone is welcome, but please follow the group rules and be courteous. Join here now.

I’ve made a few changes since the last map almost two weeks ago. However, keep in mind these states are still polling close and there is a compelling case for each side to win. There are many factors unique to this election that could also push the race in unexpected directions, so you should not let this encourage or discourage you very much. Perhaps we will even find that some states are more competitive than the pundits and press have anticipated. I’m looking at you, New Hampshire.

The data available this year is incredible. Over 70 million people have already voted. Detailed Early Voting (EV) and Vote By Mail (VBM) information is updated daily by most states, as is registration information. Some states provide very limited information, revealing little about how a voter may have voted. But in other states, the data is highly detailed, sometimes even allowing you to determine within a small margin of error who the person likely voted for – and maybe even where they had lunch before casting their ballot!

The problem with early data and the prognostications around it is that there isn’t much to compare it to, at least not apples to apples. I’m not discounting it, but I would be cautious about anyone simply comparing 2024 EV data with 2020, when the country was on fire, masked, and fearful . And 2016? That was a million years ago. Midterm voting patterns also differ significantly from General Election patterns, so even 2022 isn’t very helpful.

Some data, however, is persuasive. Republicans have gained in voter registration in almost every county of every battleground state, not to mention most other states. This shift is why Trump has a chance of winning the popular vote this time around (he could even win it and still lose the Electoral Vote). For example, in Pennsylvania, the Democrats’ registration lead over Republicans was 685,818 in 2020 when Biden won by only 81,600 votes. By 2022, that lead had dropped to 549,568, and now in 2024, it’s down to 281,091—a difference of 404,727. That fact alone suggests Trump wins PA.

Currently, Democrats hold a 400,000 lead in Pennsylvania’s EV. But in 2020, Biden led by 1.1 million at this point. Note, some people, especially Democrats, were uncomfortable leaving their homes that year. But still, together with registration differences, that’s a major change. The outcome will hinge on whether Republicans or Democrats have simply just cannibalized their expected Election Day vote. What about Independent registrations? Well, they have gained 141,303 in PA since 2020. How are they voting? As usual, that’s harder to tell, but probably fairly evenly.

The gender gap is receiving significant attention, and it may be the most determinative factor in the outcome. But it’s a mistake to assume that more women automatically means victory for Harris, statistically speaking. Suppose the total electorate has 150 million votes with a 52% women to 48% men split. If the gender gap among actual voters shifts to 55% women and 45% men, that simply means 4.5 million stayed home. But what if those non-voting men are mostly Democrats? Then it’s a huge loss for Harris, not a gain.

See, it’s complicated.

There’s plenty more to say, but things are shifting constantly. This is just a snapshot, not a prediction. Again, there are compelling reasons to believe that some or even all battleground states I give to Trump could go to Harris. So, don’t hold me to it.

Here’s my updated map for November 2, 2024, with notes below. Maybe there will be another update before the election. But no matter what, join me for The Furrowcious Election Day Special!

NOTES

BATTLEGROUNDS:

FLORIDA: Changed from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. Republicans already have an EV lead of nearly 800,000 votes, with more Election Day voters remaining than Democrats. The abortion amendment on the ballot is the only reason this isn’t in the “Solid” category.

NEVADA: Changed from Leans Democrat to Leans Republican. Three weeks ago, Harris’s team called Nevada their “blue firewall,” thought to be their safest battleground. But the Early Vote skews heavily Republican, and there may not be enough Democratic voters left to close the existing 40k margin. Harris would need to win Independents by more than 10%, which is unlikely.

NORTH CAROLINA: Changed from Leans Democrat to Leans Republican. Data supports a Trump victory here, but it’s very tight. The hurricane still impacts mostly Trump counties. But Harris isn’t actively campaigning here this weekend, suggesting it may be a loss for her. On the other hand, Trump has two stops in NC this weekend, signaling less confidence.

ARIZONA: This might be Trump’s strongest battleground state this year. ALL counties have shifted more Republican since Biden barely won the state in 2020, This is especially true in the all important Maricopa County. Unless there is a strong anti-Trump vote, he will win by a comfortable margin.

GEORGIA: Georgia only reports basic voter demographics, so all we know is the number of votes, location, and racial breakdowns. Most insiders say this will go Trump, mainly because rural areas are already matching or exceeding 2020 totals, and because Trump is polling better among almost all racial demographics than he did in both 2016 and 2020, which if true, means the urban vote will be slightly better for him. More than 80% of the expected GA vote is in, so we’ll likely know the outcome relatively early on Election Night.

WISCONSIN: This is perhaps Trump’s best chance among the “Blue Wall” states. A Harris insider was quoted by

Mark Halperin

to say that he’d be somewhere between “surprised” and “shocked” if Harris wins WI. She’s visiting three times before Election Day.

MICHIGAN: My least confident call for Trump among the battlegrounds. Republican Party is a mess here, and electoral shenanigans are not favoring them. Democrats were suing to remove Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from the ballot, then he dropped out and endorsed Trump and asked Michigan to take him off the ballot, Democrats then sued to keep RFK Jr. on the ballot, and they won. Some polls have RFK Jr. still polling at 3%. But, interestingly, Trump just campaigned in heavy Democrat and Arab immigrant Dearborn to positive reception. A CAIR poll shows Jill Stein leading Harris among Muslims with 42.3% of the Muslim vote. Harris losing this part of her base could make victory challenging. Stein could do quite well for her in Michigan, offsetting any RFK Jr. impact.

PENNSYLVANIA: Said a lot already. It all comes down to Election Day turnout. Republicans hold an edge, but it could go either way, with both campaigns pushing hard up to the last minute.

POTENTIAL SURPRISES?

NEW HAMPSHIRE: It’s been out of the spotlight, but both campaigns continue to visit, spend money on ads, and recent polls show a tight race, with a couple giving Trump a slight lead. If Trump wins here, he could lose WI, MI, and PA and still take the election by holding NC, GA, AZ, and NV.

NEW MEXICO: Trump’s team sees it as possible, but unlikely. But border states are frustrated with Biden/Harris, but Harris is still favored to win.

VIRGINIA: Trump is campaigning here this weekend. I doubt that Trump wins VA, just based on the fact that Northern VA is filled with DC folk who in both parties despise Trump and face job loss if he wins. Really hard to see the rest of the state overcoming this deficit. Still, polling is almost within the margin of error.

MINNESOTA: Hasn’t voted for a Republican since Nixon in 1972.  It’s very close, Somali groups and others are endorsing Trump for the first time and it could make a difference.  But 1972?  Walz’ home state?  Hard to see it.  It’s been slowly moving right though for many years. I think it happens soon if not this year.

POSSIBLE HARRIS SURPRISES?

Not so much in the data, except to say that Harris could win all of the battleground states, they are all close. I tend to think these states will fall mostly together one way or the other.  There are rumors about IOWA and OHIO and even KANSAS flipping giving some interesting thoughts for the Harris hopeful.

I may post one last map before Tuesday. For real-time results, join my Election Night Facebook Group, The Furrowcious Election Day Special, where all sides can engage in educated, respectful discussion.

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PSF