My Election Map for October 10, 2024
It’s not a prediction of the final Presidential Election result—just a snapshot of what things look like today with some notes.
On November 5, 2024, I’ll be hosting the 13th Furrowcious Election Day Special. This is a non-partisan group hosted on Facebook that will report on election returns and post results, often ahead of television broadcasts. Everyone is welcome, but please follow the group rules and be courteous. Join here now.
If you’ve known me for a while, you know that I’m an election junkie. I love diving into the weeds and details of it all. I do this partly for my own sanity in this crazy world, but also to better explain how the system works—especially in a time when so many people think everything is doomed if their candidate loses. Spoiler: it’s not.
Over the years, I’ve shared my thoughts and predictions from time to time, and I’ve been mostly correct—mostly. That’s all I’m doing here. Nothing I share indicates how I plan to vote. This is simply an educated, experienced, and borderline-accurate snapshot of what the election could look like if current trends continue.
So, here’s my prediction map for October 10, 2024. It’s not a prediction of the final result—just a snapshot of what things look like today. Some of my notes are below:
Notes:
This is the most complicated electorate I’ve ever seen. While this map shows a Trump victory, I wouldn’t be surprised by either a much larger Trump win or a close (or even not-so-close) Harris victory. But internal and external polling trends, voter registrations, and other data I’ve heard from people in both campaigns—if accurate—are leaning toward a Trump win.
Trump is polling better across almost every demographic than he did in 2016 or 2020. If those polls are accurate, he wins easily. However, this could also mean that pollsters have finally figured out how to more accurately poll his supporters, meaning the race is very tight. His support was significantly underestimated in the last two elections. If that’s the case again, he will have a significant victory and may even win the popular vote.
There is also a compelling scenario that Harris wins the Electoral College and looses the popular vote. I bet some people who are recently against our system will suddenly like it again.
I think abortion plays a much bigger role than the polls suggest, in ways that could help Harris. Many may vote for her in the privacy of the voting booth, even if they publicly say they support Trump. Some Trump-leaning voters might also stay home due to his moderated position on abortion. This will be especially significant in states where abortion measures are on the ballot, like Arizona, Nevada, and even Florida. Some recent high-quality polls show Trump leading comfortably in Florida, but if there’s a surprise coming in any so-called non-battleground states, Florida could flip for Harris for this reason.
I’m not saying Kamala Harris can’t win. The election is close. But her campaign is behaving like one that’s losing at this stage. Some people are already suggesting Biden would have done better, though I disagree. However, excuses are piling up on her side, and suddenly, even Democrat Senators once thought “safe,” like Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin, are in danger of losing.
Trump’s campaign, on the other hand, is acting like a winning one. Insiders are relatively confident. They are going after new constituencies and doing events in solid blue states. I’ll admit, I’m not entirely sure they’re not just crazy for holding events in New York, California, and Colorado this week. But winning campaigns have the time and money for that. With the Trump campaign, though, you can never be entirely sure.
Incidentally, Romney had very rosy internal polls in 2012 and thought—like I did—that he would win. But a software error wrecked his get-out-the-vote strategy on Election Day. Hillary’s campaign in 2016 ignored key warning signs and she lost like I said she would. These ghosts are haunting both sides today.
I’ll update this map once or twice more before Election Day. Please join me for the Furrowcious Election Day Special for fast results (Furrowcious.com). Please share your comments and questions.
PSF