My Election Map for October 22, 2024
A snapshot of the election to date and a discussion of the crucial "secret vote."
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I am hesitant to make any significant adjustments to the map this week, even though nearly all the current data suggests a Trump victory. That said, there are still compelling arguments that would support a Harris victory. Those arguments are less about data and more about what I call the “secret vote.”
The “secret vote” refers to the actions people take on their ballot that they don’t tell anyone about, usually because they fear their opinion will cause them to be canceled by friends, family, employers, or diabolical social media algorithms. These actions are often completely unknown, except between the closest of friends and spouses, or sometimes even just between that voter and God alone. In 2016 and 2020, the “secret vote” overwhelmingly went for Donald Trump. It’s why the pollsters, especially with the state polls, underestimated his strength. In every election since the 2022 Dobbs decision reversing Roe, the “secret vote” has supported pro-abortion candidates or ballot measures. It’s why there was no “red wave” in 2022, despite the predictions and expectations by both sides.
Everybody has secrets in their hearts. These explain the real motivations for actions—the actual anxieties, worries, genuine opinions, and rationales. Sometimes these things are well-thought-out convictions about truth, bringing confidence and rational judgment. Other times, these secrets are treacherous self-deceptions that betray reality, causing the justification of poor decisions and eventually leading to ruin. Regardless, those things are at the core of a person’s belief, and belief is the impetus for action, even the simple marking of a ballot.
So, in today’s snapshot of the election (October 22, 2024), while it looks the same, there is a strengthening Trump trend from my last look at this. However, the “secret vote” looms large and won’t be known until Election Day—or perhaps the following Saturday, or month. Reminder: Nothing I share indicates how I plan to vote. This is simply an educated, experienced, and borderline-accurate snapshot of what the election could look like if current trends continue. It’s not a prediction of the final result—just a snapshot of what things look like today. Some of my notes are below:
2024 Potential Dominant Secret Votes:
Abortion: Clearly, the Harris campaign is counting on this secret vote to bolster the not-so-secret vote on this subject, and they are right to do so. Sadly, Americans love their abortions. Thus, abortion-related measures are not coincidentally in states where this may help Harris and Democrats in general. Arizona, Nevada (and Nebraska’s CD2) are battlegrounds that Harris probably needs, and U.S. Senate races in Florida, Montana, and Missouri will potentially keep the Senate under Democrat control.
Transgender Sports: Interestingly, the issue of biological men in women’s sports may offset and perhaps overcome any advantages abortion may bring. Right now, women’s collegiate volleyball teams are choosing to forfeit NCAA matches in protest over a biological male player on the San Jose State team. Five NCAA women’s teams have now made this decision to not play and take the loss. Some states make it illegal to discriminate based on “gender,” so some women aren’t openly stating a reason. But it’s not really much of a secret. The women’s rights issue in this election may be Title IX, not abortion.
Independents: Voter registrations have moved more Republican everywhere, and Republicans have gained in almost every single county in all of the battleground states. This is partly due to a clear shift in the electorate, as well as states purging their voter rolls of dead people, duplicate voters, people who have moved, etc., which overwhelmingly reduces the number of registered Democrats—like, every time. Nothing to see here. The point is, this is getting a lot of attention from statisticians who see this as an incredible advantage for Republicans, and the current trend in early voting does favor Republicans. However, the largest increase in registrations is often among independent voters. These voters tend to lean conservative, but it’s very hard to determine how this group votes, and it could be decisive. Probably, this group leans Trump. But there are secrets.
Food: Do not be surprised to discover that food is a much bigger issue for many voters, especially for women. Again, this may further offset abortion, as these voters are voting for what Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would bring to a Trump Administration when it comes to our phony food.
Forever Wars, COVID shot mandates, Trump legal issues, lawfare, and more: These may be bigger issues than what show up in polling data.
Other Notes:
I kept the states the same, but Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina are definitely trending more Trump at the moment. New Hampshire and New Mexico have some interesting but unconvincing polling in favor of Trump.
While this map favors Trump, all of the battleground states could still be won by Harris. See secret votes above.
Democratic Senate candidates in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, all expected to win, are all showing signs of trouble. All three, and most notably Bob Casey from Pennsylvania, have released TV ads positively portraying Donald Trump and letting voters now where they agree. If you think Harris is going to win your state, you don’t put out ads telling people why you agree with her opponent. Especially when he’s Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, Attila the Hun, Tiglath-Pileser III, Satan, etc.
National polls don’t mean much at this point, except to note that Trump could win both the popular vote and the Electoral College. Interestingly, Harris could potentially lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College.
Some polls are suggesting Trump will gain and perhaps win both Arab and Jewish voters, but for entirely different reasons.
The Harris campaign is suddenly doing more interviews and changing tactics. She is changing her message almost daily, hoping something might stick and give her the win in this close election. That’s possible, but this is typically what losing campaigns do at this point. On the other hand, Trump is having fun and handing out fries at McDonald’s. He’s also actively seeking to win over traditionally Democratic voters. This is what winning campaigns look like at this stage. Just saying.
I don’t think there is any way to compare the early vote with 2020. Everything about 2020 is an anomaly, and we live in a different world than we did in 2016. Thus, projections based on the early vote are new territory, in my opinion. Let the buyer beware. Next week they will be more informative probably, but we still won’t know the secrets.
I’ll probably update this map before Election Day. Please join me for the Furrowcious Election Day Special for fast results on Election Day (Furrowcious.com).
Please share your comments and questions.
PSF