Reality is Persistent

A response to "How did this happen?" for those who didn't see it coming.

I think it’s really important for us to understand why Donald Trump won the election and why Kamala Harris lost. Not for the sake of future political strategies, but because we have a moment to look at a snapshot of our culture. I want to look carefully at this so we can help each other understand what is happening and what is true.

See, elections have a way of bringing us back to reality when we have strayed away from it. Reality isn’t always clear; sometimes it’s deliberately obfuscated, especially in politics. But in the end, reality is persistent, and the vote is counted. Reality will always break through—sometimes confirming what we believe, and other times completely upending a basis for our understanding of the world. In light of how many people are asking, “how did this happen?”, we serve each other well by answering this question accurately.

Reality is persistent. I like saying it and typing it. It’s a great principle to live by.

If you live your life and set your expectations according to what is authentically true, as best as you can tell, your life is better. When you discover that reality is different than you thought, your pain and disappointment in this discovery are relieved when you make adjustments toward that reality. On the other hand, your struggle will continue and get worse when you refuse to bend to truth when it is revealed. Some people today believe people have their own “truth.” But this is nonsense. To deny reality in favor of a fantasy is not healthy. The reality is, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris cannot both win the election.

Many of you are congratulating me today on accurately calling the 2024 election. All 50 states; got them all correct. Thank you. You can read about this in my November 2 post, and here is last Saturday’s map:

I feel pretty good about this map today, but before I get too full of myself, and before you get too impressed, you should know this: many, many people published the exact same prediction. Why? Because this result was obvious to anyone willing to take an unfiltered look. Reality is persistent.

If it’s so obvious, why didn’t the professional pollsters get this right? Well, if you look carefully, most of them did, within the margin of error. We can argue about that another time if you want. Not the point here.

I have some advantages in this kind of predictive endeavor. I’ve done this for years; I know the country and voting patterns. Experience counts. I also have a job as a talk-show host and pastor, where I talk to people from all sides, from every walk of life. If you listen to people, you get a better grip on what they’re thinking. It’s not hard to extrapolate that to a whole nation and voilà—accurate map.

Without getting into the specifics today (saving that for future posts), I just want to say this. If you are hurting or confused about why this happened, seek reality as you grieve. The temptation is to defend bad information you’ve received, and false beliefs you hold, and to blame things and people. But that sets you up for future failures. We’ve all been there in different ways.

I want to show you this one graphic. There are many more like it and more coming that confront media narratives. It doesn’t say what some people would have hoped it would say. But it is something that was revealed in nearly all polls and was obvious to anyone who would take a serious look and taken the time to listen to people who don’t agree with each other.

Does this fit the narrative you’ve been told? Almost every demographic moved toward Trump and away from Harris. The news organizations, pundits, and TikTok influencers who told you something different was going on were all wrong.

And please hear this—some of them were honestly mistaken, but some of them were deliberately misleading to you. Internally, they had seen how many people came to the same conclusions as my map suggested and why. As a said, the data was clear about where the electorate was and why. Some people just emotionally couldn’t believe it and went out against it. But others deliberately misled, hoping to manipulate your understanding of reality for power or advertising dollars. This is why few people remain who trust the media. They’ve seen the reality. They’ve seen it on YouTube and Twitter/X when they decided to check for themselves.

Today, you might want to lean into your feelings on the matter. I understand that; we all do that in our disappointments and it’s good to take time for that. But after a day or two, if you want to live better, if you want to win next time, if you want to experience truth setting you free, you have to understand this basic principle: Reality is persistent. Living in that reality is great, even when we lose elections.

I’ll leave it there for now. In the mean time, I promise, if you honestly seek truth, you will find it.

PSF

PS: As a baseball fan, I also like saying and typing “Reality bats last.”